The United States will decline?

This afternoon, The famous international political scholars, harvard's Kennedy school of government of before Joseph. Endure (Joseph Nye) professor Ash center published in The theme of "The United States will decline?" speech, this speech is endure professor promote his new book "The strength of The Future" (The Future of Power) activities. The big brother's lecture was proof or very attractive, the audience packed the hall of the Ash center. Professor from Nigeria about two Theory change hegemony hegemony transfer Theory (Hegemonic Transition Theory) and Hegemonic Stability Theory (Hegemonic Stability Theory) to speak about. He thinks that, based on the following three aspects reason,best sunglasses about the American position had declined opinion is not established. First, about the United States is now in the life cycle of the what stage, actually not well defined. A typical example is, when the American war of independence when success, the world has bemoaned the hegemony of English has declined. But the fact is, after the American war of independence in 100, is the day into the heyday of the empire. Aims to learn from that the United States international status has begin to decline judgment may be too early to; Second, about the decline of point (Timing) is not good judgment. Generally, the decline of British hegemony spend at least half a century of time. Professor nanotubes tend to think that, given the decline of global power process may be slow. He also ridiculed in harvard colleague Neil. Professor ferguson, because the latter believe that the position of the United States may declined rapidly; Third, decline into relative decline and absolute decline. Nairobi, says professor of American hegemony absolute decline in a remote possibility, and only happens relative decline. Then, professor nanotubes mainly analyzed whether China will challenge even beyond the American hegemony. He thought that for now, the challenge of China is quite limited. First, from the economic aspect, despite China's economy is expected to begin in the next ten years beyond the United States, when China in science and technology innovation ability, and the per capita GDP and financial market development degree, the distance there remains a sizable gap; Second, from the military level, although in recent years, the Chinese military spending is growing rapidly, but Chinese military power and the United States forces still have the price, short-term, and catch up with little hope of the medium term; Third, China and the United States in the Soft Power (Soft Power) and the gap between the two countries is far higher than in the economic aspects of the gap. Professor nanotubes admitted that, in recent years the Chinese government in the national soft power construction spent a great deal of resources. But he also warned, China's leaders may not realize that the United States is the most important the soft strength not from the government behavior, but from civil society development and growth. And China's current political structures determines the development of civil society in the inevitable suppressed; Fourth, the United States in the international society for trust and association ability is very strong, and in this respect China did not perform as well as others. The example is professor of Nairobi, in China by land and more than a dozen countries or regions,NHL Hats keep good relationship with China national I'm afraid only north Korea, Burma and Pakistan, while other countries more or less to China be fear, this is why these countries initiative invited the United States' involvement in the east Asian pattern of the fundamental reasons. In the question and answer session, professor mentioned some opinions of Nigeria to influence me a lot. First of all, he said a words of lee kuan yew, the China population up to 1.3 billion which appear the genius of probability is not low. But can America drawn to the global 60, more than people of talent, so the United States in the talent advantage in China is far stronger than; Second, endure professor noted that the Chinese government and Chinese people so far has not been well act as the global leader in preparation. Global hegemony is to assume the responsibility of public products provide global. China has used to have to ride, but when the Chinese growth for the world's second largest economy after, continue to have to ride may lead to existing global public product system collapse, for example greenhouse gas emissions area; Third, Nigeria, says professor manufacturing high unemployment is the American economy is facing a major challenge. Even if the exchange rate of the yuan freely floating, only with technological progress itself also exacerbate the problem of unemployment. By increasing the education training efforts to help the United States manufacturing to realize the transition of the labor force, the U.S. government must make a difference. Fourth, the Obama government will military foreign policy center to the asia-pacific region, and not that the United States and the European Union of the relationship between the Allies appeared big questions. Although the European sovereign debt problems currently being stirred the suds, but the us and European Union still unbreakable.

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