Banking regulatory commission (CBRC) said the banking industry can withstand the house prices fall into five

Here is the news the banking regulatory commission (CBRC) : banking can withstand the house prices fall into this words very key 5: "banking regulatory commission chairman yesterday in an interview mingkang CCTV first revealed, the pressure test result shows that, even if house prices fell fifty percent, also can bear, the banking industry does not exist banking is in real estate business enveloped said Monday." Because this at least shows that 1. The banking regulatory commission (CBRC) think real estate loans should be the risk assessment of the pressure test (stress testscenario) should be a 50% fall,baseball hats rather than the commonly used 30%; 2. Real estate loans that the main banking risk from lenders the credit risk of default, and the risk is mainly due to falling house prices cause. But we should not only ask, that falling house prices to what extent, banking is not inherit? This involves the pressure test of sensitivity analysis of the problem, the reporter didn't ask, chairman liu and no answer. This not only makes me want to explore the banking regulatory commission to pressure test it is how do. Generally speaking, can have two kinds of pressure test method: set pressure situation (set the stress scenario) and the simulation method (MonteCarlosimulation). The so-called set scene, is as indicated above, the assumption that house prices falling certain scope, see how many bad loans will be/default, every breach will bring many losses. The simulation of law is a variety of uncertain factors (such as interest rates and house prices) to a random simulation, and then take the worst as a pressure situation, this method to interest rates and house prices prediction model of the demand is higher, stability is poor, so the bank generally be using the set pressure situation. But whether that approach, need to use the econometrics model of consumers' behavior, also is the statistical model. And the statistical model, the basic assumption is that if events in situation happened under A B, if appear again scene B, the event A is likely to happen again. Make me confused problems arise in here,sunglasses shop if scene B never happened, how can we according to A statistical model to predict events A the probability of occurrence in A? In other words, if house prices never fall 50%, that how can we know the banking industry can bear? We can't help but to cross-examine, the pressure test is it with what method, what statistical model? If it is you, do you believe? I hope we get the answer is not "whether you believe it or not, anyway I believe in".

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By "fed" of Chinese science and technology