Professional investment and beauty contest game

This paper is to a log on "how to rational irrationality-2012 annual meeting one of American economist notes of the last game of the detailed answers. This kind of guess the game and say average pageant game, from Keynes in its well-known "obtain employment, interest and money general theory, and so murphy teacher called it" Keynes beauty "game. < p style = "text-align: center;" > John Maynard Keynes said: "professional investment about may be compared to the match held by newspaper, the newspaper published one hundred photographs, participants to choose one of the most beautiful,cheap new era hats the choice of six who take part in the competition and the results of the average preference similarity, who possibly winning, in this case, every one of them in a contest not choose his own believe that the most beautiful six, and choose others believe that the most beautiful six. Use intelligence, speculation that most people the most beautiful." One of the kind of don't guess averages, and guess digits, is usually close to two-thirds of the average, RosemarieNagel first put forward this a game problem: let all the students in class between 0 to 100 choose any a number, if you select several, including you, and all the candidates, the average number of two-thirds of the most close, then you are a winner. More varieties can see the following documents: http://www.stanford.edu/~niederle/GuessingGames.pdf the experiment was repeated many times, but with criticism that the result does not represent the people are really deliberate answer, because it is not good, so maybe you just teasing them. In order to verify whether people really is "play" bounded rationality, or in the economic interests in a completely rational when, London's financial times once had a questionnaire survey, and prizes from London to New York for two business-class tickets. A total of 1382 questionnaire received response, on average, the answer is 18.9, so close to the most mean two-thirds of integer for 13, a total of 31 people won the two tickets. But we are interested in is the ultimate "the correct answer", but what is the choice. Thaler professor is very kindly gave me his speech document, the distribution of the plan is the answer. < p style = "text-align: center;" > everybody can see from this map out??????? As dr. GuoJieQun said, in real life, does anyone really completely irrational, any option is higher than 67 of people probably is in effect; And then just a guess, 33 to 67 between probably belongs to effect; Why are there so many of the 33? These people is probably thinking: if people are just a guess, the mean is probably two-thirds of 50, 50, is 33; The help of further reasoning is 33 of 2/3:22, so choose the people also many; Down again, completely rational reasoning will get 0 the Nash equilibrium, this also explains why so many people choose a 0.best sunglasses In between 10 to 15, is probably the teacher says murphy "wise" choice, probably want through the 3-4 rounds of expectations, and it is said in the daily life, you want to think more than ordinary people three or four steps, can lead? Estimate must also see your opponent is who, if contestants are all is the game theory scholars, that estimate is going to have to choose 0.

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