2012年2月23日星期四

The European Union summit interpretation

The European Union summit finished open, made a lot of achievements, leaving the more problems. Short-term measures have two main. One is as high as 700 billion euros ($) rescue city funds, including 500 billion European Union interior through the European financial stability fund and European stability mechanism (ESM) to use, 200 billion through bilateral loans into the international monetary fund (IMF). Another measure is Greek bonds reiterated that the decision of the writedowns are the exception, will not apply to ESM and new euro government bonds. This is important for Greece opened writedowns precedent difficult to assess other bond market after the reduced risk,dc hats which leads to the eurozone government bond yields higher. The price is to get aid to give up sovereignty. This summit in political progress is apart from the UK other European Union countries agree to outside of treaties make "European finance ministry", coordinating fiscal policy, and will try to realize the unification of economic policy. This makes the power to the European Union on further level. The Italian government total debts of about 1.6 trillion euros, compared with 700 billion help city really not a small number, but can be recognized by the market remains to be seen. The consensus view is that if the European central bank (ECB) willing to buy an unlimited government debt, it will completely out of the market for the risk of default concerns. But Della has said this is less auspicious possible, so the market will focus on after the summit, more stringent financial discipline could let ECB increases in the market to buy the strength of the bonds. From the summit would rather give up their sovereignty or to retain the attitude of the euro on see, countries together for ShiJian determination is great, and also increase when Italy, Spain and other countries debt problems worsen the European Union increase the probability of relief efforts. And if the euro collapse, the European central bank has also lost the existing infrastructure, believe the central bank will not sitting idly by. All of these can say is good. However the debt market size huge, no investors worried about basic fundamentals when suddenly improved when can't buy the debt, so while the debt yields rising high, and very few people were willing to in order to higher interest rates and assume bond prices further downside risk. General attitude is watching, the most secure way is the European central bank such strength institutions strong buying, confirm that a policy again after the order. Another strength organization is IMF, the European Union also hope to 200 billion euros ($) loan can attract other countries through the IMF to help. But there is no country made it clear that support, instead the United States has made it clear that won't put more a penny. For other countries, through this channel capital injection can increase in the influence of the IMF, but the European Union countries people's standard of living quite high, and any aid actions could inherit from domestic political pressure. So can become the IMF rescue Europe's lead the eldest brother is still not clear. If no policy bottom, only have to wait for the bottom of the market, as enough investors to pursue more than the rate of return to the risk of default concerns, bond yields would rise stabilising. The latest news is soros fund has bought $2 billion of European bonds, can inspire people follow suit, perhaps next week can see some rapist. Even if the policy and market the walk not to come out, the euro is not collapse. After all, this is most people are not willing to see the results. But the continuing crisis state promotes the eu centralized process, also accord with Germany, France and other countries to the long-term interests of the core. Let the default risk persist, the European Union was slightly worse when lend a helping hand, in exchange for crisis countries guaranteed sovereignty, improve the fiscal contraction, let the market concerns recession risks, in this equilibrium, the debt problems will long-term influence international financial markets. Finally consider factors of Britain. Just after world war ii, in Europe in these countries a base of Britain best, so for a long time for the eu is not the most active. In 1985, when Britain sign the schengen didn't attend, 1992 euro signing the treaty and not join. As a member of the European Union,mlb jerseys the British basic is hold over the mentality of a rip-off to come to the meeting: hope with their domestic veto-proof for more loose financial supervision, and allow the British financial industry in the European Union in the unity of the market has the advantage of the system. Unfortunately other European Union countries to Britain as a nation of long-term make the specialization of dissatisfaction at the summit concentrated broke out, decided to sign the treaty left England itself. Britain also won't bolt, has already said that the eu institutions is for all the countries of the European Union set up, could harm other countries use the internal mechanism to realize the eu fiscal unity. The future how Britain aggravating, the evolution of the European Union to also can have long-term and far-reaching influence.

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